Thanks for visting! This is (obviously) a work-in-progress, but please do take a look around...

A bit of intro...

In 2016, my alma mater, Tennessee, was a preseason favorite to win the SEC East. After our win against Florida, it suddenly became a very real possibility, and I started asking myself the question - "So what ARE our chances, technically speaking, at this point in the season?" I looked around the Internet, and couldn't find anyone answering that question. I think this is because the SEC has a ton of rules about how to break division ties at the end of a season, and so the possible scenarios get really complicated, really fast.

So, in the fall of 2016, I wrote some code to simulate SEC play and then to resolve all possible tiebreakers, so that I could correctly arrive at actual probabilities for SEC division championships. I posted these on the r/ockytop subreddit.

In 2017, I extended the code to cover all of the Power 5 conferences, and started posting on r/cfb, along with weekly summaries. I also enlisted the help of some intrepid redditors to collect the weekly data from ESPN and other sources.

A little later in 2017, I finished a project that enabled me to collect most of the weekly data just by scraping the various websites.

This year I'm experimenting with my own hosting, which will hopefully allow me to further automate the process of putting these up each week. I've also added the Group of 5 conferences, which has been great so far since their divisional races are, generally speaking, a lot more open...

A Few Words About Methodology

I use per-game win probabilities either directly scraped or computed from multiple sources, and I simulate the season 100,000 or more times. I could simulate it more, but I find that the numbers don't change usefully. After each season simulation, I use each conference's official tiebreaker rules to determine which teams won their divisions.

This data also gives me number-of-conference-win probabilities for each team, which I think are interesting even though you can usually find those numbers elsewhere.

Data Sources

I am using 3 data sources that provide either per-game win probabilities for every game, or team ratings that can be mapped to a formula allowing me to calculate the same. The 3 sources are Bill Connelly's S&P+, Kenneth Massey's Massey Ratings, and ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).

I weight each of these sources equally. I am not FiveThirtyEight, and I don't have time to do retroactive analysis on each of these sources to determine what their weights ought to be. However, these are all well-respected data sources that generally have ~75% predictive accuracy, which is considered to be very decent in terms of college football predictions.

2018 - week 10 - all FBS conferences

Division Championship Probabilities, stacked
Division Championship Probabilities, scattered
Projected Conference Wins, stacked
Projected Conference Wins, scattered

2017 - end of regular season - Power 5 conferences only

Division Championship Probabilities, stacked
Division Championship Probabilities, scattered
Projected Conference Wins, stacked
Projected Conference Wins, scattered